10. Erica Downs, “China’s Energy Rise,” in Brantly Womack, China’s Rise in Historical Perspective (Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield, 2010), p. 181 (“petroleum export – led”); Downs III, p. 24 (“must export”); Daniel Yergin and Joseph Stanislaw, The Commanding Heights: The Battle for the World Economy (New York: Simon and Schuster, 2002), ch. 7.
11. Joseph Fewsmith, Dilemmas of Reform in China: Political Confl ict and Economic Debate (New York: M. E. Sharpe, 1994), p. 17.
12. Interview.
13. Interview with Zhou Qingzu; PetroChina Company Limited, Global Off ering, p. 73.
14. Interview with Zhou Jiping.
15. Julie Jiang and Jonathan Sinton, Overseas Investments by Chinese National Oil Companies (Paris: International Energy Agency, 2011), p. 22; Erica Downs, Inside China Inc.: China Development Bank’s Cross-Border Energy Deals, John L. Thornton China Center Monograph Series, no. 3, March 2011 (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 2011).
16. Moscow Times, September 28, 2010 (“new start”).
17. Interview (“throwing a match”); Frank J. Gaffney Jr., Statement of Frank J. Gaffney Jr., hearing, “National Security Implications of the Possible Merger of the China National Off-shore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) with Unocal Corporation,” before the Committee on Armed Services, House of Representatives, July 13, 2005, pp. 6, 8; interview with Fu Chengyu; Xinhua, October 12, 2006 (“talking about the win-win”); Chevron, “Chevron Acquires Interest in Three Deepwater Exploration Blocks in China,” September 7, 2010 (“welcome the opportunity”); interview.
18. Erica S. Downs, “Business Interest Groups in Chinese Politics: The Case of the Oil Companies” in China’s Changing Political Landscape: Prospects for Democracy, ed. Cheng Li (Washington, DC, Brookings Institution, 2008); interview with Zhou Jiping; Jiang and Sinton, Overseas Investments by Chinese National Oil Companies, pp. 7, 25; Erica Downs, “Who’s Afraid of China’s Oil Companies?” Energy Security: Economics, Politics, Strategy, and Implications (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2010), ch. 4; Fu Chengyu, speech, CERAWeek, February 2006; interviews.
Глава 10. Китай на полосе обгона
1. Interviews.
2. Far Eastern Economic Review, February 2004 (“certain powers”).
3. Time, June 28, 2004; Wall Street Journal, July 9, 2004.
4. Voice of America, July 29, 2010 (“lifeline of our commerce”).
5. Far Eastern Economic Review, April 2006; Wall Street Journal, October 4, 2010 (“hegemon”); Office of the Secretary of Defense, U. S. Department of Defense, “Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2010”; Washington Post, July 31, 2010; See Wang Jisi, “China’s Search for a Grand Strategy,” Foreign Affairs, March – April 2011, p. 71 (“reckless”). For a discussion of the emergence of the “core interest” concept, see Michael Swaine, “China’s Assertive Behavior, Part 1, ‘On Core Interests, ’” China Leadership Monitor, No. 34 (2011).
6. Hu Jintao, speech, G8 Summit, St., Petersburg, July 2006 (dilemmas); interview (“exporting to America”); Zhou Jiping, “Embracing the Low Carbon Economy of Sustainable Energy Development,” speech, International Petroleum Technology Conference, Doha, December 7, 2009.
7. Martin S. Indyk, Kennet G. Lieberthal, and Michael O’Hanlon, Bending History: Barack Obama’s Foreign Policy (Washington D. C.: Brookings Institution, 2012), pp. 29 (“own rise”), 43 (“closed loop”); Michael D. Swain and M. Taylor Fravel, “China’s Assertive Behavior: Part Two: the Maritime Periphery”, China Leadership Monitor, Summer 2011.
8. Xi Jinping, Speech, Washington D. C., February 16, 2012.
9. Interview.
10. Kelly Sims Gallagher, China Shift s Gears: Automakers, Oil, Pollution, and Development (Cambridge: Massachusetts Institute of Technology Press, 2006), pp. 2, 34–36, 63–79, 172; Jim Mann, Beijing Jeep: A Case Study of Western Business in China (Boulder: Westview Press, 1997); The Wall Street Journal, June 8, 2004.
11. The New York Times, December 22, 2010.
12. The World Bank and State Environmental Protection Agency of the People’s Republic of China, Cost of Pollution in China: Economic Estimates of Physical Damages, 2007; Daniel H. Rosen and Trevor Houser, China Energy: A Guide for the Perplexed, China Balance Sheet Project, Center for Strategic and International Studies and the Peterson Institute for International Economics, May 2007, pp. 13, 42.
13. Liu Zhenya, “Strong Smart Grid,” speech, July 26, 2010.
14. Julie Jiang and Jonathan Sinton, Overseas Investments by Chinese National Oil Companies: Assessing the Drivers and Impacts (Paris: International Energy Agency, 2011), p. 20.
Глава 11. Кончается ли в мире нефть
1. Kenneth S. Deffeyes, Hubbert’s Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2001), pp. ix, 10, 158 (“chaos,” Thanksgiving); Michael C. Ruppert, “Colin Campbell on Oil: Perhaps the World’s Foremost Expert on Oil and the Oil Business Confirms the Ever More Apparent Reality of the Post 9–11 World,” The Wilderness Publications, 2002 (“extinction”); Oil Depletion Analysis Centre, “New Oil Projects Cannot Meet World Needs This Decade,” The Wilderness Publications, November 16, 2004 (“unbridgable”); Independent, June 14, 2007; UK Energy Research Centre, Global Oil Depletion: An Assessment of the Evidence for a Near Term Peak in Global Oil Production (London, 2009), p. x.
2. International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2010 (Paris: International Energy Agency, 2010), p. 139.
3. Ali Larijani, speech, Arab Strategy Forum, Dubai, UAE, December 5, 2006 (“expiration date”).
4. Daniel Yergin, The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power (New York: Free Press, 2008), p. 36 (Archbold).
5. H. A. Garfield, Final Report of the U. S. Fuel Administrator, 1917–1919 (Washington, DC: GPO, 1921), p. 8 (“walk to church”); Francis Delaisi, Oil: Its Influence on Politics, trans. C. Leonard Leese (London: Labour Publishing, 1922), pp. 86–91 (Curzon); National Petroleum News, October 29, 1919, p. 51 (“ ever-increasing decline”); Dennis J. O’Brien, “The Oil Crisis and the Foreign Policy of the Wilson Administration, 1917–1921,” Ph. D. dissertation, University of Missouri, 1974 (“necessary supply”).
6. Robert Goralski and Russell W. Freeburg, Oil & War: How the Deadly Struggle for Fuel in WWII Meant Victory or Defeat (New York: William Morrow, 1987); Arthur J. Marder, Old Friends, New Enemies: The Royal Navy and the Imperial Japanese Navy (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1981), pp. 166–7 (“scarecrows”); Basil Liddell Hart, The Rommel Papers, trans. Paul Findlay (New York: Da Capo Press, 1985), p. 453.
7. Donella Meadows, Dennis Meadows, Jorgen Randers and William Behrens III, The Limits to Growth: A Report for the Club of Rome’s Project on the Predicament of Mankind (New York: Signet Books, 1974).
8. Chemical Week, July 19, 1978 (“twilight”).
9. Independent, June 14, 2007 (“glass”).
10. William E. Akin, Technocracy and the American Dream: The Technocratic Movement 1900–1941 (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1977), ch. 6. The Leading Edge 2, no. 2 (February 1983) (“manpower and raw materials”); Tyler Priest, “Peak Oil Prophecies: Oil Supply Assessments and the Future of Nature in U. S. History,” unpublished paper, p. 17 (“hieroglyphics”); Fred Meissner, “M. King Hubbert as a Teacher,” presentation, Geological Society of America Annual Meeting, Seattle, Washington, 2003 (“comprehend”); David Doan, “Memorial to M. King Hubbert,” Geological Society of America, Memorials 24 (1994), p. 40.
11. Interview with Pete Rose; Priest, “Peak Prophecies,” pp. 18, 21–22 (“mathematician that he is”), fn. 52–53 (Broussard).
12. Washington Post, April 7, 1974 (“light post”).
13. M. King Hubbert, speech, American Petroleum Institute, March8, 1956 (“blip in the span of time”); Chemical Week, July 19, 1978 (lifetimes); T. N. Narasimhan, “M. King Hubbert: A Centennial Tribute,” Ground Water 41, no. 5 (2003), p. 561 (“period of non-growth”).
14. Colin Campbell and Jean Laherrere, “The End of Cheap Oil,” Scientific American, March1998 (“only minor deviations”); Peter Jackson, “Why the ‘Peak Oil’ Theory Falls Down,” IHS CERA, November 2006, Steven Gorelick to author; Peter R. Rose to author.
15. Interview with Pete Rose (“very static view”); William L. Fisher, “How Technology Has Confounded U. S. Gas Resource Estimates,” Oil and Gas Journal 42, no. 3 (1994).
16. Leonardo Maugeri, “Squeezing More Oil from the Ground,” Scientific American, October 2009, pp. 56–63; “The Benefits of DOFF: A Global Assessment of Potential Oil Recovery Increases,” IHS CERA, August 19, 2005 (digital oil field).
17. Matthew R. Simmons, Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy (Hoboken: John Wiley, 2006) (central tenet).
18. Interview with Khalid Al-Falih (“robust”).
19. Interview with Mark Moody-Stuart; Peter McCabe, “Energy Resources: Cornucopia or Empty Barrel?” AAPG Bulletin 82, no. 11 (1998), pp. 2110–34 (revisions and additions); McCabe, “Energy Resources,” p. 2131 (“symmetrical”). A good case study of “not running out” is provided by the Permian Basin, one of only two “super giant” oil fields in the Lower 48.
20. Peter Jackson, Jonathan Craig, Leta Smith, Samia Razak and Simon Wardell, “’Peak Oil’ Postponed Again,” IHS CERA, October 2010. For two thoughtful and highly informative analyses on depletion and “running out,” see Steven Gorelick, Oil Panic and the Global Crisis: Predictions and Myths (Oxford: Wiley-Blackwell, 2010) and Leonardo Maugeri, The Age of Oil: The Mythology, History, and Future of the World’s Most Controversial Resource (Westport: Praeger, 2006), chs. 16–20.
Глава 12. Нетрадиционные углеводороды
1. Rod Lathim, The Spirit of the Big Yellow House (Santa Barbara: Emily Publications, 1995), pp. 33–47; William Leffler, Richard A. Pattaroizzi, and Gordon Sterling, Deepwater Exploration and Production: A Non-Technical Guide (Tulsa: Pennwell, 2011), ch. 1.
