Shaman, 112–113.
245. Evans-Pritchard, Witchcraft, 79–80.
246. Evans-Pritchard, Witchcraft, 73.
247. Evans-Pritchard, Witchcraft, 102–107.
248. Evans-Pritchard, Witchcraft, 108–109.
249. Beard, SPQR, 465; см. главу 10 в кн.: Hansen, Anthology of Ancient Greek Popular Literature, где дан перевод так называемого второго издания оракула.
250. Позднее добавились вопросы для воинов и крестьян; см. Stewart, Sortes Barberinianae, 185–188.
251. Toner, Popular Culture in Ancient Rome, 48.
252. Luijendijk and Klingshirn, My Lots Are in Thy Hands, 1; Hansen, Anthology of Ancient Greek Popular Literature, 285–286.
253. Toner, Popular Culture in Ancient Rome, 47–48.
Глава 7 254. Steffen et al., “Trajectory of the Anthropocene”.
255. См. Our World in Data website и Christian, Origin Story, 312, а также Smil, Harvesting the Biosphere.
256. Arthur, The Nature of Technology, и Headrick, Humans versus Nature.
257. О глобализации с точки зрения большой истории см. Christian, предисловие к Zinkina et al., Big History of Globalization.
258. Ogle, Global Transformation of Time, 1–2
259. Whitehead, Adventures of Ideas, 93, глава о предвидении.
260. Fernandez-Armesto, The World, CD.
261. О глубине времени см. Toulmin and Goodfield, The Discovery of Time.
262. О «хронометрической» революции см. Christian, “History and Science after the Chronometrie Revolution”.
263. Shapin, The Scientific Revolution, 10, 37.
264. Davies, Magic, 45; о заимствовании у Шиллера см. Gerth and Mills, From Max Weber, 51.
265. Shapin, The Scientific Revolution, 154 and 33.
266. Wooton, The Invention of Science, 5–6, 8–9.
267. Porter, Greatest Benefit, loc. 8991, Kindle.
268. По замечанию С. Шейпина, это мог быть всего-навсего мысленный эксперимент. См. Scientific Revolution, 84; о Торричелли: Dewdney, Epic Drama, 152ff.
269. Silver, Signal and the Noise, 372.
270. Pearl, “Art and Science of Cause and Effect”, 415.
271. Weaver, Lady Luck, 74.
272. Gilmour, “Nature and Function of Astragalus Bones”.
273. Stewart, Do Dice Play God? 28; Mlodinow, Drunkard’s Walk, loc. 806ff., Kindle. Благодарю Ная Бэйкера за сведения о Кардано.
274. Mlodinow, The Drunkard’s Walk, loc. 1007 and 1064, Kindle.
275. Stewart, Do Dice Play God? 29–30.
276. Mlodinow, The Drunkard’s Walk, гл. 3; также идея выборки излагается в строгом описании в классической работе: Feller William, Introduction to Probability Theory.
277. Stewart, Do Dice Play God? 43–44; опыты показали, что и обычные монеты выпадают не совсем случайным образом. См. Mlodinow, The Drunkard’s Walk, loc. 1064ff., Kindle, где автор приписывает это открытие Галилею.
278. Daston, Classical Probability, 15.
279. Weaver, Lady Luck, 42.
280. Stewart, Do Dice Play God? 33 и 91.
281. McGrayne, Theory That Would Not Die, 7.
282. Rosenbaum, “100 Years of Heights and Weights”, 281, summary data from 282.
283. Isaacson, Einstein, 325.
284. Hacking, The Emergence of Probability, 105–106.
285. Hacking, The Taming of Chance, 41.
286. Hacking, The Taming of Chance, 105.
287. Mayer-Schönberger and Cukier, Big Data, 6.
288. Mayer-Schönberger and Cukier, Big Data, 11.
289. Urry, What Is the Future? 89.
290. Holmes, Big Data, 27.
291. Bell, Foundations of Futures Studies, 1:44.
292. Meadows, Meadows, and Randers, Beyond the Limits, 199.
293. Turner, “Comparison of The Limits to Growth”, and “Is Global Collapse Imminent?”; Herrington, “Update to Limits to Growth”, 2021.
294. Ord, The Precipice, 70–73.
295. Dewdney, Epic Drama, 154–158.
296. Blum, The Weather Machine, 19–28; Dewdney, Epic Drama, 158ff.
297. Blum, The Weather Machine, 125; см. также гл. 8.
298. Silver, Signal and the Noise, 181–182.
299. Gidley, The Future, 58; Sardar, Future: All That Matters, гл. 3; Bell, Foundations of Futures Studies, 1, гл. 1.
300. Об Уэллсе как «отце» современных исследований будущего см. Wagar, “H. G. Wells and the Genesis of Future Studies”.
301. Wells, “Discovery of the Future”, 1902.
302. Sardar, Future: All That Matters, loc. 350, Kindle.
303. Bell, Foundations of Futures Studies, 1:63–64.
304. Strathern, Brief History of the Future, 205ff. and 263ff.
305. Andersson, Future of the World, 4; о Флехтхайме см. Strathern, Brief History of the Future, гл. 4.
306. Gidley, The Future, 5–6, 51.
307. Meadows et al., The Limits to Growth, loc. 398–414, Kindle.
308. Gidley, The Future, 55–56; on the WFSF, см. https://wfsf.org/; Sardar, Future: All That Matters, loc. 461ff., Kindle. Ныне действует Ассоциация футурологов (https://www.apf.org/), на сайте которой говорится, что она насчитывает 400 членов из 40 стран.
309. Bell, Foundations of Futures Studies, т. 1, гл. 2, а также 1:102–12.
310. Bell, Foundations of Futures Studies; Aligica, Special Edition on Wendell Bell; textbook introductions to the techniques of professional futurists include Hines and Bishop, Thinking about the Future; on scenario planning, Schwartz, The Art of the Long View.
311. Об исследованиях будущего и научной фантастике см. James and Mendlesohn, “Fiction and the Future”.
Глава 8 312. Rees, On the Future, 12.
313. Krznaric, The Good Ancestor, 89.
314. Dator, A Noticer in Time, 42; Harman, Incomplete Guide to the Future, from Joe Voros, “Philosophical Foundations”, 69.
315. Maslow, “Theory of Human Motivation” and “Symposium: Revisiting Maslow”.
316. Christian, “History and Global Identity”.
317. “Towards a Global Ethic”, 1993, Parliament of the World’s Religions, https://parliamentofreligions.org/towards-global-ethic-initial-declaration.
318. Sargent, Utopianism, 15.
319. Sargent, Utopianism, 66, цитируется английский перевод 1833 г. сочинения католического священника СанДжермано.
320. О влиянии Уэллса см. Hensel, “H. G. Wells and the Drafting of a Universal Declaration of Human Rights”; также см. Wells, Rights of Man; or, What Are We Fighting For? 23.
321. Malthus, Essay on the Principle of Population.
322. Bell, Foundations of Futures Studies, 1:117.
323. Meadows et al., The Limits to Growth.
324. Meadows et al., The Limits to Growth, 196. Фразу о коперникианской революции добавили по настоянию спонсоров Римского клуба.
325. Meadows et al., The Limits to Growth, 24–25.
326. Meadows et al., The Limits to Growth, 175.
327. “United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change”, United Nations, 1992, https://unfccc.int/files/essential_background/back ground_publications_htmlpdf/ application/pdf/ conveng.pdf.
328. 1992 World Scientists’ Warning to Humanity, July 16, 1992, Union of Concerned Scientists, https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/1992-world-scientists-warning-humanity.
329. “The Future We Want”, United Nations General Assembly, September 11, 2012, https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/index.php?page=view &type=400&nr=733&menu=35.
330. “Transforming Our World: The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development”, United Nations General Assembly, October 21, 2015.
331. Randers, 2052, loc. 1319, Kindle.
332. Выступление Рамсфелда: https://archive.ph/20180320091111/http://archive.defense.gov/Transcripts/Transcript.aspx?TranscriptID=2636; обсуждение: Silver, Signal and the Noise, 420–421.
333. Raworth, Doughnut Economics, 124.
334. Taleb, The Black Swan.
335. Eldredge and Gould, “Punctuated Equilibria”.
336. Christian, Origin Story.
337. Kaku, Physics of the Future, 328ff.
338. Rosling and Rosling, Factfulness, 51.
339. Max Roser, Hannah Ritchie, and Bernadeta Dadonaite, “Child and Infant Mortality”, Our World in Data, last updated November 2019, https://our-worldindata.org/child-mortality; Smil, Numbers Don’t Lie, 9.
340. Holmes, The Age of Wonder, 305ff.; Porter, Greatest Benefit, loc. 7145, Kindle.
341. Pinker, Better Angels of Our Nature; изложение доводов Пинкера: Steven Pinker, “A History of Violence: Edge Master Class 2011”, Edge, September 27, 2011, https://www.edge.org/conversation/mc2011-history-violence-pinker.
342. Schwab, Stakeholder Capitalism, 25.
343. Свежие данные: Max Roser, “Future Population Growth”, Our World in Data, от ноября 2019 г., https://ourworldin-data.org/future-population-growth; Ehrlich and Ehrlich, The Population Bomb.
344. Vollset et al., “Fertility, Mortality, Migration, and Population Scenarios”.
345. Roser, “Fertility Rate: Children Born per Woman [World]”, Our World in Data, 2014; см. также версию от 2 декабря 2017 г.: https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate.
346. Weart, “Development of the Concept of Dangerous Anthropogenic Climate Change”.
347. Riahi et al., “Shared Socioeconomic Pathways”.
348. Allan et al., Climate Change 2021, 16–18.
349. Allan et al., Climate Change 2021, 36.
350. Bar-On, Phillips, and Milo, “Biomass Distribution on Earth”.
351. S. Diaz et al., IPBES (2019), 24.
352. The 2021 UNEP report, Making Peace with Nature.
353. Lovelock,
