http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/imf-world-bank-annual-meetings-and-inequality-by-mohamed-a--el-erian-2014-10.
9. Madeline Ostrander, “What Poverty Does to the Young Brain,” New Yorker, June 4, 2015, http://www.newyorker.com/tech/elements/what-poverty-does-to-the-young-brain.
10. Frank Bruni, “Class, Cost and College,” New York Times, May 17, 2014, http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/18/opinion/sunday/bruni-class-cost-and-college.html.
11. McKinsey Global Institute, “QE and Ultra-Low Rates,” 2013.
CHAPTER 12: THE PERSISTENT TRUST DEFICIT
1. Ian Fraser, Shredded: Inside RBS, the Bank That Broke Britain (Edinburgh: Birlinn, 2014).
2. Joshua Zumbrun and Alaa Shahine, “Retired Bernanke Harbors Regret on Main Street’s View of Bailout,” Bloomberg News, March 4, 2014, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-04/bernanke-says-u-s-economy-seeing-progress.html.
3. Timothy F. Geithner, Stress Test: Reflections on Financial Crises (New York: Crown, 2014).
4. Binyamin Appelbaum, “Yellen Says Restraining the Fed’s Oversight Would Be a ‘Grave Mistake,’ ” New York Times, July 16, 2014, http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/17/business/yellen-says-constraining-fed-would-be-a-grave-mistake.html.
5. Panel discussion remarks quoted in Jeff Kearns, “Fed’s $4 Trillion Assets Draw Lawmaker Ire Amid Bubble Concerns,” Bloomberg News, December 17, 2013, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-12-17/fed-s-4-trillion-assets-draw-lawmaker-ire-amid-bubble-concern.html.
6. Ibid.
7. Peter Eavis, “New York Fed Is Criticized on Oversight,” November 21, 2014, http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/11/21/new-york-fed-chief-faces-withering-criticism-at-senate-hearing.
8. Liz Alderman, “Netherlands Asks Bankers to Swear to God,” New York Times, December 12, 2014, http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/12/12/netherlands-asks-bankers-to-swear-to-god.
9. Mohamed A. El-Erian, “The Threat to the Central Bank Brand,” Project Syndicate, June 4, 2013, http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/the-growing-risk-to-central-bankers--credibility-by-mohamed-a--el-erian.
10. Guy Kawasaki, Enchantment: The Art of Changing Hearts, Minds, and Actions (New York: Penguin Books, 2012).
CHAPTER 13: NATIONAL POLITICAL DYSFUNCTION
1. “The Great Fracturing,” Economist, February 21, 2015, http://www.econo mist.com/news/leaders/21644147-britains-slide-six-party-politics-presages-instability-and-crisis-legitimacy-great.
2. Mohamed A. El-Erian, “I Don’t Know What Will Happen If We Default, and I Don’t Want to Find Out,” Atlantic, October 10, 2013, http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/10/i-dont-know-what-will-happen-if-we-default-and-i-dont-want-to-find-out/280467/.
3. For an insightful discussion of the various components of this balancing act, see Eric Schmidt and Jared Cohen, The New Digital Age: Reshaping the Future of People, Nations and Business (London: John Murray, 2014).
4. Mohamed A. El-Erian, “The Very Messy Politics of Economic Divergence,” Project Syndicate, March 2015, http://www.project-syndicate.org/com mentary/economic-divergence-global-politics-by-mohamed-a--el-erian-2015-03.
CHAPTER 14: THE “G-0” SLIDE INTO THE “INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC NON-SYSTEM”
1. The term was coined more than ten years ago by Jim O’Neil, Goldman Sachs’s chief economist at that time. It now refers to the grouping of countries consisting of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa.
2. Mohamed A. El-Erian, “The Real Message of the BRICS Summit,” Bloomberg View, July 17, 2014, http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-07-17/the-real-message-of-the-brics-summit.
3. Mohamed A. El-Erian, “U.S. Opposition to Asian Bank Is Self-Destructive,” Bloomberg View, March 31, 2015, http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-03-31/el-erian-u-s-opposition-to-asia-bank-is-self-destructive.
4. Richard Dobbs, James Manyika, and Jonathan Woetzel, No Ordinary Disruption: The Four Global Forces Breaking All the Trends (New York: PublicAffairs, 2015).
5. Mohamed A. El-Erian, “Is the World Bank Losing Asia?,” Bloomberg View, July 10, 2014, http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-07-10/is-the-world-bank-losing-asia.
CHAPTER 15: THE MIGRATION AND MORPHING OF FINANCIAL RISKS
1. See, for example, the December 9 press release by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/bcreg/20141209a.htm.
2. Greg Ip, “Post-Crisis Risk Casts a Darkening Shadow,” Wall Street Journal, April 8, 2015, http://www.wsj.com/articles/post-crisis-risk-casts-a-darkening-shadow-1428499827.
3. Brad Jones, “Asset Bubbles: Rethinking Policy for the Age of Asset Management,” IMF Working Paper, February 2015, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2015/wp1527.pdf.
4. Jaime Caruana, “Macro-Prudential Policies: Opportunities and Challenges,” speech to the Tenth High-Level Meeting for the Middle East and North Africa, Bank for International Settlements, December 9, 2014, http://www.bis.org/speeches/sp141219.pdf.
5. Banque de France, “Macroprudential Policies: Implementation and Interactions,” Financial Stability Review, April 2014.
6. Mohamed A. El-Erian, “3 Steps to Remove Financial System Risk,” Harvard Business School, August 15, 2007, http://hbswk.hbs.edu/item/5745.html.
7. Mohamed A. El-Erian, “Creative Self-Disruption,” Project Syndicate, April 7, 2015, https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/consumer-sharing-economy-adaptation-by-mohamed-a--el-erian-2015-04.
8. Steve Lohr, “Banking Start-ups Adopt New Tools for Lending,” New York Times, January 19, 2015, http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/19/technology/banking-start-ups-adopt-new-tools-for-lending.html.
9. For full disclosure, I have been recently involved in one of these efforts—“Payoff”—as an investor and board member of a start-up seeking to improve the financial services offered to households and small businesses.
CHAPTER 16: THE LIQUIDITY DELUSION
1. Tracy Alloway and Michael MacKenzie, “Anatomy of a Market Meltdown,” Financial Times, November 18, 2014, http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/cac64efe-6b34-11e4-ae52-00144feabdc0.html.
2. Jamie Dimon, “Annual Letter to Shareholders,” JPMorgan Chase, April 2015, http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ONE/15660259x0x820077/8af78e45-1d81-4363-931c-439d04312ebc/JPMC-AR2014-LetterToShare holders.pdf.
3. William Finkbarr Flynn and Takako Taniguchi, “Prudential Chief Echoes Dimon Saying Liquidity Is Top Worry,” Bloomberg News, April 13, 2015, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-14/prudential-chief-says-biggest-worry-is-liquidity-echoing-dimon.
4. Mohamed A. El-Erian, “The Market ‘Sucking Sounds’ Are Getting Louder as Four Forces Come Together,” Business Insider, June 11, 2013, http://www.businessinsider.com/el-erian-on-the-liquidity-gap-2013-6.
5. Mohamed A. El-Erian, “Is the Market Confident or Too Complacent?,” Bloomberg View, June 9, 2014, http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-06-09/is-the-market-confident-or-too-complacent.
CHAPTER 17: BRIDGING THE GAP BETWEEN MARKETS AND FUNDAMENTALS
1. Jim Puzzanghera, “Yellen Upbeat About Growth in the Coming Quarter,” Los Angeles Times, May 7, 2014, http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-yellen-economy-20140508-story.html.
2. Binyamin Appelbaum, “Q. and A. With Charles Plosser of the Fed: Raise Rates Sooner Rather Than Later,” New York Times, January 30, 2015, http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/30/upshot/q-and-a-with-charles-plosser-of-the-fed-raise-rates-sooner-rather-than-later.html.
3. Claire Jones, Robin Wigglesworth, and James Politi, “Fed Fights Back Against ‘Feral Hogs,’ ” Financial Times, June 24, 2013, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/9d8fa63e-dce6-11e2-b52b-00144feab7de.html.
4. Mohamed A. El-Erian, “Big Money vs Bernanke: Who’s Right About the Economy,” Atlantic, July 3, 2013, http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/07/big-money-vs-bernanke-whos-right-about-the-economy/277548/.
5. Joshua Zumbrun, “Fed Hears Warning That Tightening Policy May Spark Market Tumult,” Bloomberg News, February 28, 2014, http://www.bloom berg.com/news/2014-02-28/fed-hears-warning-that-tightening-policy-may-spark-market-tumult.html.
6. Andrew Filardo and Boris Hofmann, “Forward Guidance at the Zero Lower Bound,” BIS Quarterly Review, March 2014, Bank for International Settlements, http://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt1403f.htm.
7. Robin Harding, “Federal Reserve Dissenter Kocherlakota Attacks New Guidance,” Financial Times, March 21, 2014, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/1607d9b8-b105-11e3-bbd4-00144feab7de.html.
8. Mohamed A. El-Erian, “Here’s Why Jeremy Stein’s Departure from the Federal
